Target Syria? Condi Begins Saber Rattling

Today, U.S. Secretary of State Dr. Condoleeza Rice recalled the U.S. Envoy to Syria, Margaret Scobey, in protest over the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister, Rafiq Hariri. (Yet she conceded that there is no evidence that Syria had anything to do with his death.) This diplomatic slap was delivered with a sharp warning to President Bashir Al-Assad about Syria's defiant "occupation" of Lebanon in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1559. (It even inspired Kofi Annan - cowering under the Oil for Food scandal - to join his American detractors in rebuking Syria.) But why the "profound outrage" against Syria…and why now?

Dr Condoleezza Rice warns Syria to be on gaurd

Only a few weeks ago, Secretary Rice journeyed to the Middle East to broker the latest and most hopeful prospects for peace between the Jews and Palestinians. (Condi seemed positively angelic hovering over Prime Minister Sharon and President Abbas.) And, at that time, only (the Palestinian terror groups) Hamas and Islamic Jihad loomed as impediments to the peace process. Then, as if divinely inspired, both groups declared a truce with Israel and Middle East peace seemed assured.

Today, however, the talk of the Middle East is less about prospects for peace than about another American military misadventure....this time in Syria. Secretary Rice claims that the assassination of Hariri and Syria's predominant influence in Lebanon triggered this round of American saber rattling. But the CIA has long suspected Syria of condoning the assassination of 241 marines (in Beirut in 1983) and no one has challenged Syria's predominant influence in Lebanon for almost 30 years. Moreover, Commanders of Coalition Forces have complained for years now that Syria is harbouring Saddam loyalists who are funding the Sunni Bathist insurgents in Iraq. And, the number of Americans these insurgents have assassinated is over 1200 and counting.

So, why the saber rattling against Syria (possibly igniting old factional hostilities in Lebanon) - just as peace between Israel and Palestine is at hand? As Ronald Regan might say, here we go again:

Saddam's regime posed no threat to any country in Middle East and even less so to the United States. Yet, after months of saber rattling, America invaded Iraq; whilst continuing to play diplomatic chicken with the serious nuclear threats posed by (the CIA diagnosed psycho) King Jung Il of North Korea. Today, it is patently obvious that Bashir Al-Assad poses no critical threat to anyone but Secretary Rice seems to be laying the groundwork for war against Syria; whilst continuing to play diplomatic chicken with the nuclear threats posed by fundamentalist Mullahs of Iran. (To up the ante, Kim Jung Il’s apparent immunity seems to have emboldened the Mullahs to offer Syria nuclear cover. And, what must be even more unsettling to Bush, his friend - Vladimir Putin - has offered to sell Russia’s most advanced missiles to Syria; perhaps hoping for payback for America’s selling of anti-aircraft missiles to Osama Bin Laden and the Muhajadeen that enabled them to kill so many Russians in Afghanistan during 1980s.)

President Bush has referred non-believers in his democracy crusade to Natan Sharansky's "The Case for Democracy..." for guidance on the philosophical underpinnings of his foreign policy agenda. But no matter how cogent the philosophy, the quagmire in Iraq demonstrates that his crusade is as fatally flawed Bin Laden's Islamic jihad. Yet, Bush remains convinced that his invasion of Iraq was necessary to bring lasting peace to the Middle East. (Note: “democratic” elections were just held in Iraq) But, given this nexus of Russia, Syria and Iran, even his faith in the transformative benefits of military action against Syria must be shaken. Moreover, it is unlikely that Presidents-in-waiting like John Kerry, Hillary Clinton and John McCain will grant him congressional cover to do with Syria what he did with Iraq.

Many underestimated Bush's born again passion for democracy. But few thought his passion would be exercised under the Clausewitzian imperative which holds that "War is only political intercourse...by other means". Nevertheless, as irrational and unfounded as it may be, Bush the crusader has Syria in his sights and Condi's foreplay (like Powell's with Iraq) is only warming things up for American military penetration.

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