Yo Bush! Never mind Iraq and Lebanon, what about Haiti?

I must admit that I do not know who amongst the motley crew of 34 candidates in last week’s presidential elections offered the best leadership prospects for Haiti. But ever since it descended into virtual anarchy during the final days of the Aristide presidency in early 2004, I have felt that Haiti does not need a president so much as a prolonged period of (enforceable) martial law.

Because only under strict martial law will government authorities be able to disarm the nihilistic gangs and rag-tag militias that are still terrorizing war-ravaged slums throughout the country.

And only when law and order is restored will a corps of engineers be able to supervise the building of key elements of Haiti’s national infrastructure (ideally, employing many of the disillusioned and chronically unemployed Haitians who have joined these gangs and militias out of frustration and despair), to attract and properly utilise the foreign aid and direct investments that are desperately needed to develop its economy.

That’s my prescription for Haiti’s terminal illness….

Well, as much as I hate writing “I told you so”, I told you so!

Because, despite my prescription, Rene Preval was inaugurated president amidst such chaos that undermanned UN (stabilizing) forces were more vulnerable to attacks from Haitian thugs than coalition forces were to attacks from Iraqi insurgents. And, reports coming out of that paradise lost this week indicate that the law-and-order problems I warned about back then have only gotten worse.

In fact, last week, after months of indiscriminate kidnappings, murders and attacks on its personnel, the UN was compelled to deploy an additional 2000 “peacekeepers” to the “island’s ravaged capital to try to retake control [of areas that have been] all but ceded to armed gangs.” But, frankly, all hope seems lost that any number of UN forces will be able to create conditions on the ground that are conducive for Preval to govern.

After all, for many rampaging Haitians, the democratically-elected Preval himself is the biggest destabilizing force in Haiti. Because, incomprehensible though it may be, a critical mass of Haitians still consider the exiled Jean-Bertrand Aristide their president and are agitating violently for his return.

Here’s how I presaged this problem last February:

That the Bush administration is putting more pressure on Preval to renounce Aristide than to announce his plans to resuscitate the Haitian economy indicates the clear and present fear the Americans have of Aristide’s imminent return.

And, their fears are well founded: After all, the vast majority of leaders in the Americas still believe Aristide’s damning claims that he was the victim of a coup d’etat because President Bush (and local businessmen – mostly mulatto bourgeois Europhiles calling themselves “the Group of 184”), found his governing socialist policies politically and ideologically untenable….

And, it’s an open secret that most Haitians who voted for Preval, did so only because they expect him to facilitate the return of their Lavalas leader Aristide to his rightful place in Haiti….

Therefore, it came as little surprise last week when thousands of Haitians took to the street chanting “Aristide or death”, “Aristide is in our blood” and demanding the third coming of their Messiah. And, vindicating my cynical regard for Preval’s mandate, Andre Michelet, one of the organizers of this protest, declared unabashedly and without a hint of irony that:

We voted for Rene Preval to obtain the return of our leader [Aristide]!

Indeed, I don’t know how many more threats and shocks to his presidency it will take before Preval realizes that President George W. Bush’s promise “to stay engaged in helping Haitians build their institutions and economy” means nothing unless it is backed-up by U.S. forces and U.S. aid. And, given U.S. commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan, neither of these seems forthcoming. Which leads me conclude today what I only feared in February; namely that:

…with so many forces arrayed against him, it’s difficult to see how Preval governs Haiti….And I fear this election might prove as all other hopeful developments have done: as just another opportunity lost for Haiti.

Alas, it now seems that it was….

NOTE: Ironically, despite refusing to fulfill his promise to help stabilize the country, Bush has decreed that it would be too destabilizing to allow Aristide to return to Haiti. And so the inertia of chaos and violence shall continue until, as I argued in this previous article, the U.S. commits to rebuilding Haiti – as it is obligated to do; instead of trying to rebuild Iraq – as it has elected to do.

Haiti, Jean Bertrand Aristide