Wednesday, November 28, 2007 at 11:42 AM

The ceremonial, though not very promising, return of the Israelis and Palestinians to the roadmap to peace

Posted by Anthony L. Hall

Yesterday, as I watched the three principals give opening remarks at the Mideast Peace Conference in Annapolis, Maryland, I could not get the prospect of the blind leading the blind out of my mind; and justifiably so.

After all, the man who convened this conference, US President George W. Bush, is a bona-fide lame duck (i.e., he’s been rendered irrelevant in domestic politics ), and he seems desperate now for any foreign-policy initiative that might vindicate his presidency and distinguish his legacy.

I don’t think it’s a risk to try for peace….I think that’s an obligation. [President Bush yesterday]

Of course, if it were truly an obligation, one wonders why he waited until the eleventh hour of his presidency to get to it….

And it’s even odds either that in-fighting within Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s fragile coalition government will soon cause it to fall, or that ongoing investigations into allegations of corruption against him will force Olmert to resign.

But most in the dark is Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Because nothing is more delusional than him talking about negotiating a peace agreement with Israel while fighting a civil war with Hamas in the Palestinian territory.

Never mind that, even at the peak of their political influence, these three blind men would’ve found it virtually impossible to reconcile historic grievances between Israelis and Palestinians and navigate the potholes on the roadmap to peace.

Which begs the question: Why do they think they can negotiate a peace agreement in one year (i.e.,“by the end of 2008”), when this mother of all international agreements has eluded far more accomplished and influential statesmen for over 60 years?

Because, frankly, beyond conceding that hope springs eternal, it’s simply delusional to think that any substantive steps in this regard will be made within this time frame. And anyone who knows anything about the forces that are arrayed against a peace agreement will appreciate why. For, among other things:

There’ll be a full-blown civil war between Hamas and Abbas’s Fatah in the now-divided Palestinian territory before a peace agreement with Israel is signed;

Like Rabin, Olmert (or any other Israeli prime minister who dares to make any concession for peace) will probably be assassinated before a peace agreement with the Palestinians is signed; and,

Despite their rhetoric, most Arab leaders seem, at best, indifferent to the plight of their Palestinian brothers. And the Saudis - whose endorsement of any agreement is almost as critical as that of the Americans - are so interested in peace with Israel that their foreign minister vowed on Sunday that there’s no way he’d even shake PM Olmert’s hand.

Then, of course, there’s the menacing specter of a nuclear Iran….

Enough said?!

(If you’d like a little insight into what informs my cynicism, check out the related articles below.)

Israel Palestine roadmap to peace