Washington was abuzz last year with predictions of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s imminent ouster. But here in part is how I pooh-poohed those predictions in “Maduro Defying (and May Outlast) Trump, Just Like Assad Did Obama (and Castro Did Kennedy),” May 6, 2019:
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Trump would have you believe that [opposition leader] Juan Guaidó is his dog in this Venezuelan fight. Except that, besides barking hollow threats, the United States is supporting Guaidó’s fledgling uprising only with hard cash. And whatever amount it is funneling to him will be a pittance compared with the amount Russia (and China) are using to bribe military leaders to continue supporting Maduro. …
As I argued in “Cry for Venezuela” … the only way Maduro will go is if military leaders decide that local protests are becoming too destabilizing for him to stay. And they will not take cues from political leaders in the United States. …
[I]f the United States thinks political pressure and economic sanctions will force Maduro to go, it will be waiting for as long as it waited to see Fidel Castro go.
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Sure enough, here is how no less an authority than The Wall Street Journal vindicated my take in a December 8 report headlined, “Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, Once Thought Ripe for Ouster, Looks Firmly in Place”:
In January, the Trump administration predicted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s imminent downfall as he wrestled with an energized opposition, debilitating U.S. oil sanctions and international isolation after dozens of nations proclaimed his leadership illegitimate.
Today, Mr. Maduro appears in firm control. The opposition is grappling with a corruption scandal and its efforts to rekindle street protests have fallen flat.
Frankly, after Trump betrayed the Syrian Kurds so infamously, Guaido had to know it was only a matter of time before Trump betrayed him and his Venezuelan supporters too. I commented on the former in “Trump Makes Way in Syria for Erdogan to Displace (or Massacre) the Kurds…,” October 8, 2019. Now comes the latter; and only the former can explain Guaido’s desperate leap of fate:
Venezuela’s opposition denounced a ‘parliamentary coup’ on Sunday after its leader Juan Guaido was prevented from entering the National Assembly by police while a rival tried to take his role as speaker.
Guaido led a small group of lawmakers trying to access the palace where the opposition-controlled National Assembly was set to elect a new speaker, when they were pushed back by national guardsmen wielding heavy riot shields. …
As scuffles broke out, the US-backed leader tried to mount an iron fence surrounding the legislature, only to be repelled again.
(Daily Mail, January 6, 2020)
Guaido and a rag-tag band of supporters finally gained access to the National Assembly yesterday. But, by then, Maduro’s supporters had already left after swearing-in a new speaker loyal to his government.
This means that Guaido is now speaker in name only – with no access to, let alone control over, any part of the Venezuelan government. Indeed, he might as well be forming a government in exile, waiting like the Dalai Lama for a miracle to facilitate his triumphant return.
Apropos of which, Guaido would be wise to heed the advice I offered in the May 2019 commentary quote above, namely he should flee for his life. Which compels me to reprise this lament:
We cry for you, Venezuela
The truth is, he never loved you
Despite Chavismo
And revolution,
He broke his promise
Come to your senses.
Related commentaries:
Guaido v Maduro…
Syrian Kurds…
Dalai Lama…
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