Hamas attacks Israel
Hamas launched a surprise attack against Israel this morning, firing thousands of missiles. Even Israeli pundits are drawing parallels to the surprise attack led by Egypt and Syria 50 years ago today.
That attack became the famous Yom Kippur War. Israel won back then, and no one doubts it will win this ‘Yom Kippur 2.0,’ too.
But this Hamas attack stems from the commonplace, tit-for-tat violence that characterizes life in the Occupied Territories. After all, the terror Jewish settlers wage against Palestinians smacks of the marauding violence we see in places like Haiti and Sudan.
So, calling it a “surprise” reflects the presumption that Israelis could subjugate Palestinians under apartheid conditions in perpetuity—without repercussions.
Israel’s 9/11
Reportedly, some Israelis are decrying this attack as their version of 9/11. Perhaps. But it might be more accurate and telling for them to bemoan it as another Yom Kippur. To explain why, imagine the outcry if ISIS chose the anniversary of 9/11 to launch another al-Qaeda-style attack on America.
The failure of Israeli intelligence is obvious. The only surprising thing about this attack is the scale and daring of it. After all, the Palestinians attacked by land, sea, and air — with paratroopers flying in like James Bond on paragliders.
Most notably, though, Hamas is already declaring victory because they have captured hundreds of Israelis to use as bargaining chips and human shields.
Because iPINIONS can’t overstate the strategic importance of Hamas capturing Israelis, especially if military officers are among their captives. They alone will prevent Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu from wiping all Palestinians off the map.
Hamas attack, the global context
The world is at war in Ukraine by proxy. Arguably, this war in Israel is only opening another front in that war, like Nagorno-Karabakh. Indeed, nobody should be surprised that Russia’s mischief-making hand is as involved here as it was there. Granted, its partner in terror, Iran, is playing mastermind on this front.
Whether coordinated or not, this attack will divert Western support from Ukraine. That will allow a beleaguered Russia to regroup for another offensive.
More to the point, Putin’s useful idiots in the Republican Party will help by arguing the false dichotomy that the US must abandon Ukraine to support Israel.
But Hamas attacked an Israel divided against itself. After all, for months, millions of Israelis have been fighting attempts by Netanyahu’s right-wing government to turn Israel’s secular democracy into a theocratic autocracy. Given that, the wonder is that any Israeli was prepared to heed his clarion call to arms.
The Palestinians have made clear that they do not want peace as the crumbs from normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Now, even Israeli champions of a Palestinian state will see this attack as setting that prospect back at least a generation or two.
So expect the retaliatory bombing to continue, fueled by both frustration and humiliation. Israel will have its pound of flesh.
But the bargaining to end this war has already begun. And I warned years ago about the moral hazard of Israel swapping 1 Israeli hostage for 1,000 Palestinian prisoners (at least).
After all, that ratio unwittingly established what little regard Israelis have for Palestinian lives. That, some might argue, justifies this war. But it now means that Hamas can demand Israel release its 5,000 Palestinian prisons in exchange for just 5 Israeli hostages. Talk about getting hoisted by your own petard.
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