North Korea denuked?! Dream on…

On Sunday, news agencies from Asia to America heralded the purported breakthrough in Six-Party Talks (involving the United States, North Korea, China, Japan, Russia and South Korea), which are aimed at dismantling North Korea’s nuclear program:

[T]he DPRK will provide a full declaration of all their nuclear programs and will disable their nuclear programs by the end of this year, 2007. [US chief negotiator Christopher Hill]

We made it clear, we showed clear willingness to declare and dismantle all nuclear facilities….We are happy with the way the peace talks went. [North Korean chief negotiator Kim Gye Gwan]

But, never mind the glaring ambiguities in North Korea’s “clear willingness to declare and dismantle all nuclear facilities”; enforcing the terms of this agreement remains a pipe dream. Indeed, it became manifestly clear on Monday that there was never even a “meeting of the minds” on material terms between the two principals, North Korea and the US.

For example, the North Koreans wasted little time expressing their glee about the fact that the Americans had agreed “to scotch the terror designation and with it related sanctions” that have made it so difficult for their leaders to continue living like feudal lords in their “hermit kingdom”. But this compelled Hill to squash their assertion in this respect as a, well, pipe dream – insisting yesterday that:

No, they haven’t been taken off the list [of states that sponsor terrorism]….Getting off the list will depend on further denuclearization.

Therefore, ignore the “Breaking News” and headlines about North Korea dismantling its nukes. Because squabbling over which nation will lead in this nuclear kabuki dance seems far from over.

Moreover, it is my informed belief that no economic concession or military threat will ever induce or coerce North Korea’s “Dr Strangelove” president, Kim Jong-il, to part with his nukes. After all, to do so would reduce his country from one that commands the world’s attention (on par with Iran), to one that languishes in relative obscurity (on par with Bangladesh).

Accordingly, the North Koreans will do everything to extend these talks beyond the Bush Administration. Because they have no doubt calculated that a more malleable, if not gullible, Democratic administration will be more inclined to grant the unilateral political and economic concessions they covet. And, if past is prologue, this mercenary calculation seems entirely sound….

Meanwhile, recall that similar headlines two years ago this month heralded North Korea’s “clear willingness” to dismantle its nuclear program.

Yet, here we are….

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