Last night, in perhaps the most anti-climactic speech of his presidency, George W. Bush announced his comprehensive plan to seal the U.S./Mexico border and make honest residents of the millions of illegal (Mexican) immigrants now scattered all over the United States.
But even the austere setting of the Oval office, which is normally reserved for addressing the nation on matters of grave consequence – did little to inspire confidence in or regard for his message. (Click here for the full text of Bush’s address.) Besides, the gravity of the occasion was undermined by the preemptive address Al Gore – the man most Americans once hoped would be sitting in that office – gave 2 nights ago (on Saturday Night Live), during which he mocked everything everyone knew Bush had to say.
For the record, Bush used this solemn and attention-grabbing occasion merely to reiterate the immigration reform measures he has been trying – for years – to get his Republican-controlled Congress to enact. Only this time he framed them in a 5-point plan as follows:
1. Secure the (U.S./Mexico) border
In fact, the only thing newsworthy about Bush’s address is the extent to which he now seems politically inclined to appease the rabid-right wing of his Party on “Border control.” As a strategic matter, however, deploying 6000 National Guard troops to seal the border – even under the temporary conditions Bush proposes – is like applying a band aid to stop the bleeding from a hemorrhaging wound.
And as a political matter, this deployment will alienate Democratic supporters of his guest-worker and path to citizenship points (see below) – who will dismiss it as a cynical and pathetic attempt to militarize a political problem (since, they scoff, even 20,000 National Guard troops won’t stop the bleeding). Unfortunately, it will also aggravate his Republican base – whose support for these (political) points is predicated on Bush not only militarizing the border (with tens of thousands of troops actively engaged in “defending” the border, not merely 6,000 deployed as a feint deterrent), but also building the most impenetrable border fence American technology can design.
2. Create a “temporary worker program” (formerly a guest-worker plan)
Clearly, to honor his Party’s “professed” compassionate conservatism and feed its unspoken but insatiable greed for cheap labor. But, notwithstanding this mercenary motive, a guest-worker plan offers the most humane and economically-sound way to assimilate illegal immigrants into mainstream American society.
3. Prosecute employers who hire illegal immigrants
This is the most effective deterrent to illegal immigration. However, no one takes this point seriously because zealous prosecution of those who hire illegal immigrants would incarcerate the donor base of both political Parties. Therefore, at best, one should expect such prosecutions to amount to nothing more than token fines on employers – as the price for exploiting cheap labor.
Meanwhile, heavy emphasis will be placed on creating “tamper-proof documents” to ensure that only those participating in Bush’s temporary worker program are hired (i.e., interior enforcement of immigration laws)
4. Offer a path to citizenship
At the insistence of xenophobic Republicans, this path would be more like an obstacle course for illegal immigrants – requiring them to jump through hoops like paying a fine, learning English and not getting arrested for the 10 to 15 years they must wait to attain citizenship. Nonetheless, Bush and some of his more visionary Republican supporters are committed to this point because they hope it will provide the Republican Party a bloc of Hispanic voters more reliable than the black vote has been for the Democratic Party for almost a half century.
5. Honor America’s heritage as a melting pot of immigrants
…The success of our country depends upon helping newcomers assimilate into our society, and embrace our common identity as Americans….Our new immigrants are just what they’ve always been: people willing to risk everything for the dream of freedom….And America remains what she has always been: the great hope on the horizon, an open door to the future, a blessed and promised land.
There you have it: Bush’s 5-point plan to solve America’s immigration problem. However, not even Pythagoras could square the circle presented by some of the politically conflicted and contentious points in Bush’s plan (e.g. deploying troops yet insisting that he’s not militarizing the border; and guaranteeing a path to citizenship yet insisting that he’s not rewarding those who have broken U.S. laws – by coming to America illegally in the first place). But this is the challenge facing the mathematically (and politically) challenged George W.
Ironically, the American people would have been prepared to grade Bush’s efforts in this regard on a very generous curve, if ‘Iraq” were not hanging like an albatross around his neck. Indeed, anyone familiar with Bush’s political woes would have seen the quagmire in Iraq standing like a big pink elephant on three legs behind him as he delivered his presidential address last night (making a mockery in real time – as Gore did by preemption – of everything he was saying).
The reality is that Bush’s post 9/11 leadership (particularly his ordering that kick-ass retaliation against the Osama-harboring Taliban) imbued him with such gravitas, credibility and popularity that he could have signed an executive order to do whatever he deemed prudent to secure the border. In addition, he could have gotten the gun-shy and cowered Congress to enact any comprehensive immigration reform he proposed. But, by the time he spoke last night, his march of folly into Iraq had bereft him of so much political influence that he appeared to be delivering a penitent supplication instead of a presidential address on immigration.
Therefore, with all due respect to Bush, comprehensive immigration reform will be enacted only if legislators like Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) usher their bipartisan bill (which includes all of Bush’s 5 points except with regular border patrol police, not National Guard troops, enforcing the border) through the Senate this week, and can reconcile it with the bill proferred by Republicans in the House (which includes making felons of illegal immigrants and seems designed, incomprehensibly, to deport them all back to Mexico).
NOTE: There can be no clearer indication that Bush’s Olympian political muscle
has atrophied into that of a 90-pound political weakling than having the muscle-bound Republican Governor of “Mexifornia” Arnold Schwarzenegger not only kick sand in his eye on his immigration reform but do so by invoking the albatross of Iraq – as if tightening the noose around Bush’s neck – as follows:
…Going the direction of the National Guard, I think is maybe not the right way to go…soldiers that are coming back from Iraq, for instance, and that have spent a year and a half over there and now they are coming back. I think that we should let them go to work, back to work again.
ENDNOTE: Bush is probably the wrong messenger delivering the right message. But, given the strangebedfellows immigration reform is making of Republicans and Democrats, I’m convinced that a majority of them will resolve that Bush’s 5-point plan offers the best prospect for comprehensive (and sustainable) immigration reform. And, as I predicted in this previous article, since Republican members of Congress are far more anxious about suffering dire political consequences if immigration reform is not enacted, I fully expect them to help reconcile a bill consisting of Bush’s 5-points for him to sign by Memorial Day.
However, I agree with Schwarzenegger that deploying the National Guard only offers comfort to fools – as I argued in this previous article. Instead, the most effective way to stem the flow of illegal immigration across America’s southern border is to help Mexico and other Latin American countries develop their economies so that it becomes unthinkable that any of their respective citizens would risk their lives – by crossing the border – just to seek gainful employment. But this is clearly a challenge for one of Bush’s more enlightened successors to undertake….
President Bush, immigration reform
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Tim says
Your references to Al Gore and Arnold Schwarzenegger are LOL funny!!!
I think you’re right that this is all about courting the Hispanic vote. If Bush wanted to secure the border he would have order as many troops there as he now has in Iraq. Period!
Phil says
Yeah this guy is completely irrevelant to what’s going on. He’s trying to get in the game on immigration but people like McCain and Kennedy have already set the rules and they’ll determine what immigration reform will look like. You’re wrong if you think the Republicans are gonna cave. Nothing will happen on this til after the fall elections when the Democrats take back control of Congress.
Jennifer says
Hi Anthony
This immigration “debate” made no sense to me until I began reading your blog. And once again it’s great to have you explain the political posturing and give us a sense of what’s really happening in Washington. Thanks.
Anonymous says
you’re distorting our position. we want to seal the borders to stop them coming here, deport those who are here so they can get in line back home like everybody else, and then welcome any of them who respect us enough to obey our laws. what’s so incomprehensible about that?
Michelle says
I’m a Democrat and even I thought Bush came across like a real leader in his speech. I think you are right about Hispanics voting for Republicans the way Blacks vote for Democrats if this immigration reform works.
Anonymous says
ALH
I’m a first-time visitor. Great blog!!!