Obama extends primary sweep(stakes) up and down the Potomac

In January, when most political pundits were asserting that the race for the Democratic nomination would be over by Super Tuesday (on February 5), I admonished you to ignore them.

Of course, given Barack Obama’s winning streak in primaries and caucuses all over the country since then, I appreciate how tempting it is now for everyone to believe that he has the nomination all wrapped up. And his sweeping victories in the Potomac primaries in Maryland, Virginia, and DC yesterday only adds credence to this tantalizing prospect.

But I’m afraid Obama still has many potholes to overcome on the road to this nomination. Not to mention the extremes to which the Clintons have yet to go to deny him this honor.

For the record, Obama or Hillary needs 2,025 delegates to clinch the nomination. And, according to the Associated Press, he has 1,222 delegates and she 1,198 – a virtual tie despite his eight-consecutive victories.

Therefore, I feel obliged to admonish you again to ignore all of the punditry about who is leading the delegate count, or who has the biggest crowds at campaign events, or who has the most women, men, black, white, or Latino supporters.

Ignore the political spin about Hillary righting her ship – complete with a shake-up of her campaign staff – for a (Giuliani-like) last stand in the “big state” primaries of Texas, Ohio (on March 4) and Pennsylvania (on April 22).

And, ignore the hype about Obama’s messianic and inexorable momentum….

Because, when all is said and done, neither Obama nor Hillary will have enough delegates to clinch the nomination before the Democratic convention convenes this August in Denver, Colorado. And it will be truly interesting to see how the Party resolves this nomination deadlock at that convention.

Meanwhile, you’ve probably heard talking heads on TV spouting off about the pivotal role “superdelegates” will play at a “brokered convention.” There are 796 superdelegates comprised of members of the Democratic National Committee, all Democratic members of Congress, Democratic governors, and distinguished party members, including former U.S. presidents, vice presidents or former congressional leaders. More to the point, however, they have free reign to choose whichever candidate they like best.

Nevertheless, I think the prospect of a bunch of politicians and “distinguished party leaders” deciding this race is grossly exaggerated. In fact, I’m convinced that the person who goes into the convention with the most pledged delegates (i.e., those duly won in the primaries and caucuses) will be the nominee. This, notwithstanding reports that the Clintons are already bribing superdelegates – with cold cash and promises of plum jobs in “Hillary’s Administration” – in exchange for their endorsement at the convention.

Of course, it’s just another indication of the Clintons’ venality that they are banking on superdelegates overturning the “will of the people”; i.e., only if Hillary ends up with fewer pledged delegates than Obama.

But Donna Brazile, former Chair of the Democratic National Committee’s Voting Rights Institute, warned that a civil war will erupt if superdelegates vote to give the nomination to the candidate with fewer pledged delegates.

If 795 of my colleagues [i.e., superdelegates] decide this election, I will quit the Democratic Party. I feel very strongly about this.

The really bad omen for the Clintons, however, is the number of their erstwhile, die-hard supporters who are now jumping ship to catch the Obama wave. And no one personifies this political opportunism quite like civil rights firebrand Rev. Al Sharpton. In fact, he testified to his belated conversion just yesterday by decrying the Clintons’ race-baiting campaign strategy – of fomenting enmity amongst whites and Hispanics for Obama – as “politricks,” and vowed that he will not stand for it….

The Democratic Party can prevent this internecine battle, however, by apportioning superdelegates based on the percentage of pledged delegates each candidate wins. And no one personifies this political principle quite like civil rights pioneer Rep. John Lewis (D-GA). In fact, he declared just last night that – even though he endorsed Hillary’s candidacy (and I forgive him for that) – he will cast his superdelegate vote for Obama at the convention because Obama is the candidate his constituents voted for in the Georgia primary.

That said, it is far more interesting and relevant to speculate on what will happen once the nominee is determined. Because on the one hand, if it’s Hillary, she will have no choice but to choose Obama as her VP running mate. And, no matter what he says about this prospect today, I think he’ll accept the offer in a heartbeat. After all, nothing could prepare him, or set him up better, to succeed President Hillary than serving as Vice President Obama for the next eight years.

On the other hand, if it’s Obama, he would be loath to choose Hillary, and she would be even more loath to accept. After all, that would be like Aretha Franklin agreeing to go on tour as the opening act for Beyonce. Besides, Obama’s ticket would be even more formidable if he were to choose a white guy from the conservative wing of the Party as his running mate.

As for the Republicans, John McCain has clinched the nomination. Yet Mike Huckabee seems determined to pester his aura of invincibility for weeks, if not months to come.

But how’s this for interesting and relevant speculation: Whether he’s facing Obama or Hillary (or, God help him, both), McCain will have to choose a woman or a minority to compete in November. Therefore, given the momentary vindication of the troop surge in Iraq, which he credits for his political resurgence, he would do well to choose Condoleezza Rice as his VP running mate….

At any rate, I remain as convince
d today that Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States as I was when I endorsed him here in October 2006. And this is the case no matter who McCain chooses as his running mate.

NOTE: Am I the only one who wonders how Obama will sustain this wave of support for his candidacy all the way to Election Day? After all, with 24/7 media coverage of his everyone word, I fear familiarity might breed contempt. (Really, how inspiring can it be to see him deliver the same speech for the umpteenth time…?)

Indeed, I suspect the only reason JFK and RFK were so appealing is that voters saw so little, and knew even less, of them….

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