Ukraine is begging NATO to enforce a no-fly zone to help it fend off Russian bombs. Short of that, it’s begging for fighter jets. But NATO leaders fear both would escalate the War in Ukraine into World War III . Therefore, NATO is refusing.
For obvious reasons, refusing to enforce a no-fly zone makes sense. However, refusing to provide fighter jets does not. After all, if Putin were going to attack NATO for supplying arms to Ukraine, surely it would have already attacked Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania for supplying the Javelin and Stinger missiles that have been shooting down Russian tanks and aircraft, respectively, like sitting ducks.
But Ukraine is also begging Western leaders to ban all oil imports from Russia. This, as part of their coordinated sanctions to stand in principled solidarity with it.
But Western leaders are balking. Not least because the war in Ukraine has already caused a spike in oil prices. And they fear banning all imports will only compound that spike.
This is why the United States is now talking about easing the sanctions it imposed on Venezuela. This, in exchange for that rogue nation producing more (cheap) oil to help ease the impact of that spike.
A delegation led by Juan Gonzalez, the top Latin America adviser to the White House, and ambassador James Story travelled to Caracas over the weekend for meetings with socialist President Nicolas Maduro. The two sides discussed the possibility of easing oil sanctions against Venezuela in the first high-level talks in years.
It marks an abrupt change in policy by the White House, which cut ties with Caracas in 2019 after accusing Mr Maduro of rigging the presidential election and recognising opposition leader Juan Guaido as Venezuela’s legitimate ruler.
(The Telegraph, March 7, 2022)
Sacrifice
Except that Ukrainians are sacrificing countless lives to defend democracy. So why can’t Americans (and Europeans) sacrifice by paying higher gas prices for this cause?
Frankly, you’d think Biden would be zealous to have Americans make this sacrifice in solidarity with Ukrainians. Instead he’s sacrificing democratic values in general, and America’s reputation in particular, in a misguided attempt to spare them.
Vindication
Not to mention the vindication this overture represents for genocidal autocrats like Maduro. Because it affirms their belief that America will blithely overlook any moral outrage for political expediency or economic convenience. Exhibit A, of course, is it engaging in bilateral trade with China on the one hand, while damning China for perpetrating genocide against the Uyghurs on the other hand.
But Biden seems oblivious or unconcerned about the moral hazards this portends. After all, he’s forgiving all to strike Faustian bargains with Maduro and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman today. But this is precisely why Putin is betting that, despite all the genocidal crimes he’s committing in Ukraine, it’s only a matter of time before a US president forgives all to strike a similar bargain with him.
But this about-face with Venezuela comes as no surprise. Because here is how I predicted Maduro’s staying power and portended Juan Guaido’s fate in “Maduro Defying (and Will Outlast) Trump, Just Like Assad Did Obama (and Castro Did Kennedy),” May 6, 2019:
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Just as he championed and enabled Assad’s defiance against Obama, Putin is doing the same for Maduro’s against Trump. And nobody should be surprised that Trump seems even less inclined to risk confrontation with Putin over Maduro than Obama was to risk it over Assad. …
Trump would have you believe that Juan Guaido is his dog in this Venezuelan fight. Except that, besides barking hollow threats, the United States is supporting Guaido’s fledgling uprising only with hard cash. And whatever amount it is funneling to him will be a pittance compared with the amount Russia (and China) are using to bribe military leaders to continue supporting Maduro.
In any event, it’s probably only a matter of time before Guaido pulls a Julian Assange … too. …
As I argued in “Cry for Venezuela” cited above, the only way Maduro will go is if military leaders decide that local protests are becoming too destabilizing for him to stay. And they will not take cues from political leaders in the United States. …
If the United States thinks political pressure and economic sanctions will force Maduro to go, it will be waiting for as long as it waited to see Fidel Castro go.
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Hypocrisy-cum-Humility
I hasten to clarify that I have no compunction about Biden welcoming Maduro (and his cheap oil) back into the Western fold. This, especially given America’s legacy of misdeeds throughout the Americas.
Mind you, Putin has effectively forfeited his ability to continue serving as his patron. Therefore, Maduro probably wants to be welcomed as much as Biden wants to welcome him.
I just hope this turn of events humbles America enough, at long last, to be more pragmatic than pontifical when it feels obliged to impose sanctions. Because, without its prevailing presumption of moral authority, America would be more inclined to make these kinds of geopolitical shifts and compromises pursuant to enlightened national interest.
Apropos of which, it took over 50 years for America to come to terms with its moral hypocrisy and begin normalizing relations with Castro’s Cuba. By contrast, it has taken less than 5 years for it to begin normalizing relations with Maduro’s Venezuela.
Beyond that, though, here’s to Biden seeing the political imperative of resuming normalization efforts with Cuba, which Obama initiated only to have Trump interrupt.
Related commentaries:
Maduro defying… Uyghurs… Putin and bin Salman…
Cry for Venezuela… Cuba…
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