What a bloody mess!
In a self-fulfilling prophecy yesterday, voters gave Britain the hung parliament that was so devoutly to be wished. For preliminary General Election results indicate that none of the three main parties will end up with the outright majority of 326 seats needed to govern alone. Instead, according to BBC projections, the Conservatives will have 306; Labour 258; and the Liberal Democrats 57.
Now the horse trading begins. Actually, it began during the debates with incumbent Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown unabashedly wooing Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg to form a coalition government. And he will no doubt redouble his efforts now by assuring Clegg that it’s only through coalition with Labour that the Lib Dems will get the electoral reform – to allow proportional representation – that will guarantee them many more seats in future general elections.
But Brown will fail; not least because Clegg stated – as an article of faith – throughout the campaign, and reiterated this morning, that the party that ends up with the most seats should be given the first opportunity to form a government. And if Brown cannot seduce Clegg, he will have to resign – since he cannot form a governing coalition without the Lib Dems.
More to the point, though, Cameron seems so intent on becoming prime minister that he might even try to govern with a minority government that excludes the Lib Dems. Especially since he is constitutionally opposed to the electoral reform Clegg must necessarily extract as the price for his party’s participation in any coalition government. Of course, politicians being what they are, it would not surprise me to see both Cameron and Clegg compromise on stated principles to consummate a marriage of convenience.
Therefore, when all is said and done, Cameron will be prime minister: either in coalition with a cowered and compromised Clegg and his Lib Dems or with a spattering of smaller parties. This of course will fulfill the prophecy I made almost five years ago:
This very English man has all the right stuff to be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom… He is as young (at 39), telegenic, impudent, and glib as current PM Tony Blair was when he was catapulted to the leadership of the Labour Party at the politically precocious age of 41.
And, if they stick to their let’s emulate Labour’s 1994 to 1997 playbook (1997 being the year Blair upset incumbent PM John Major to win his first election), it’s very likely that the Conservatives will be returned to government – with Cameron moving into No. 10 Downing Street – after the next general elections.
[The next British prime minister, TIJ, December 7, 2005]
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