Ukraine’s Third Election in Three Years: UPDATE on My Favorite Ex-Communists

In 2005, the U.S. Congress hailed Viktor Yushchenko, the first democratically-elected president of Ukraine, as the George Washington of his country.

However, no American politician could have anticipated the obsession fractious Ukrainians evidently developed for elections after their split from the former Soviet Union. After all, Sunday’s national poll was the third in three years, which puts the Ukrainians on track to make the Italians’ promiscuous penchant for changing governments seem positively chaste.

But here’s a quick recap:

Only months after his election, Yushchenko’s myriad failures as a leader became so untenable that many erstwhile ‘Orange Revolutionaries’ were already pining for a return to communist rule. These were Ukrainians who had risked their lives to support his call for democracy.

In fact, Yushchenko (right) spent so much time trying to manage the grandiose ambitions of his government ministers that he was utterly incapable of delivering on any of his election promises. Most notably, he failed to eradicate corruption, establish fiscal transparency, and set Ukraine on a path towards sustainable economic development.

It was not surprising, therefore, that Yushchenko’s most decisive act as president was his sacking of Yulia Tymoshenko. She was the charismatic woman he appointed prime minister and who, to his understandable chagrin, many Ukrainians thought personified the spirit of the Orange Revolution.

Unfortunately, this only deepened disaffection with his leadership and exacerbated the democratic growing pains of all Ukrainians. And to make matters worse, instead of going quietly, Tymoshenko led a mutiny against him, which caused their governing coalition to crumble in abject failure.

This in turn led to new elections held in March 2006. They resulted in the improbable return to power of unreformed communists led by Viktor Yanukovych… the man Yushchenko claims headed the Russian-concocted attempt to assassinate him. (See the previous update in this series for the back story on this bit of intrigue, which will explain Yushchenko’s pockmarked face.)

Nevertheless, after declaring self-righteously that a Yanukovych government would amount to ‘a betrayal of Ukraine’s national interest,’ Tymoshenko and Yushchenko formed an alliance to foil the democratically elected communists from governing. That alliance proved far more formidable (and competent) than their political marriage to govern Ukraine.

Accordingly, more bickering than governing ensued, and this led to new elections being scheduled for Sunday — purportedly to end the latest political deadlock.

Remarkably enough, the consensus opinion going in was that a remarriage between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko offered the best prospect for a sustainable government in Ukraine.

Perhaps this third time will prove a charm. And preliminary results indicate that they may get their way.

Because respective blocs headed by Tymoshenko and Yushchenko seem likely to command an overwhelming majority of the votes (47%) compared to that headed by their mutual rival Yanukovych (34%).

I believe no-one can diminish or deny the victory Ukraine has scored….Everything will work out. In a matter of weeks we will hold our first government news conference. [Yulia Tymoshenko yesterday after vowing to form a governing coalition with Yushchenko]

Meanwhile, Yanukovych has vowed to do to a Tymoshenko and Yushchenko government what they did to his. Never mind that leaving them to their own devices might prove even more destabilizing….

But it remains to be seen if he can form a coalition with enough (pro-Russian / communist) splinter groups to challenge their (pro-Western / democratic) majority.

Therefore, chances are very good that, instead of a political honeymoon, Tymoshenko and Yushchenko will soon be leading street protests to rally support for their governing coalition.

Chances are even better, however, that iPINIONS will be posting a similar update a year from now after another round of elections are called to end yet another period of political deadlock.

So, stay tuned….

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